Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
